Three Point Jump for ABI

On the heels of consecutive months of decreasing demand for design services, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has returned to positive territory. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending.[adrotate banner=”61″] The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the May ABI score was 52.6, up sharply from a mark of 49.6 in April. This score reflects an increase in design activity (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 63.2, up from the reading of 59.1 the previous month.

The AIA has added a new indicator measuring the trends in new design contracts at architecture firms that can provide a strong signal of the direction of future architecture billings. The score for design contracts in May was 52.5.

“Volatility continues to be the watchword in the design and construction markets, with firms in some regions of the country, and serving some sectors of the industry, reporting strong growth, while others are indicating continued weakness,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “However, overall, it appears that activity has recovered from the winter slump, and design professions should see more positive than negative numbers in the coming months.”

Key May ABI highlights:

• Regional averages: South (58.1), Midwest (51.3), Northeast (47.6) , West (46.9)

• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (58.2), commercial / industrial (53.6), mixed practice (50.4), institutional (47.3)

• Project inquiries index: 63.2

• Design contracts index: 52.5

The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the national index, design contracts and inquiries are monthly numbers. 

 

AIA Unveils New Leading Indicator

By measuring the movement of design contracts in the monthly Architecture Billings Index (ABI), the American Institute of Architects (AIA) is now able to trace the path of resources into the design and construction industry from the earliest conceptualization until it results in finished projects. This new indicator is being spotlighted in an AIA economic research white paper, Designing the Construction Future.

[adrotate banner=”55″]“We have been tracking new project inquiries – bids, general solicitations, interview invitations – which tend to be rather subjective, so we began looking for a more precise way of estimating future levels of billings activity at architecture firms,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “We determined that the most accurate predictor of future design workloads is the monthly change in the volume of new design contracts.”

Design contracts are the agreements between the client and architecture firm on the scope of, and compensation for, new design projects. Similar to how construction contract awards act as a leading indicator of future construction spending, design contracts are expected to provide a comparable glimpse of future billings and design activity. Trends in the dollar volume of design contracts end up filling an important gap between trends in project inquiries and actual design billings.

The AIA began collecting data on design contracts in October 2010 and with over three years of data there is enough information to seasonally adjust the index. Preliminary analysis suggests that a change in firm billings follows a change in design contacts by approximately six months.

ABI Positive for Third Straight Month

Billings at architecture firms accelerated to their strongest pace of growth since December 2010. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the October ABI score was 52.8, up from the mark of 51.6 in September. This score reflects an increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 59.4, compared to a mark of 57.3 the previous month.

“With three straight monthly gains — and the past two being quite strong — it’s beginning to look like demand for design services has turned the corner,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “With 2012 winding down on an up-note, and with the national elections finally behind us, there is a general sense of optimism. However, this is balanced by a tremendous amount of anxiety and uncertainty in the marketplace, which likely means that we’ll have a few more bumps before we enter a full-blown expansion.” 

Key October ABI highlights:

• Regional averages: South (52.8), Northeast (52.6), West (51.8), Midwest (50.8)

• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (59.6), mixed practice (52.4), institutional (51.4), commercial / industrial (48.0)

• Project inquiries index: 59.4

The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the index and inquiries are monthly numbers.

 

ABI Inches Back into Positive Territory

Architectural Model
© 2006, The American Institute of Architects. All rights reserved.

On the heels of a nearly three-point increase, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) climbed into positive terrain for the first time in five months. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects  reported the August ABI score was 50.2, up from the mark of 48.7 in July. This score reflects an increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 57.2, up from mark of 56.3 the previous month.

“Until the economy is on firmer ground, there aren’t likely to be strong increases in demand for design services,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Ph.D., Hon. AIA. “In the meantime, we can expect to see design activity alternate between modest growth and modest decline.”

Key August ABI highlights:

  • Regional averages: South (52.2), West (51.2), Northeast (45.5), Midwest (45.3)
  • Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (53.0), institutional (50.2) commercial / industrial (47.9), mixed practice (46.8)
  • Project inquiries index: 57.2

The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the index and inquiries are monthly numbers.

About the AIA Architecture Billings Index
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group, is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly “Work-on-the-Boards” survey that is sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms. Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to the prior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI.  These monthly results are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline. The regional and sector data are formulated using a three-month moving average. More information on the ABI and the analysis of its relationship to construction activity can be found in the White Paper Architecture Billings as a Leading Indicator of Construction: Analysis of the Relationship Between a Billings Index and Construction Spending on the AIA web site.

ABI Remains Positive for Fourth Straight Month

© 2006, The American Institute of Architects. All rights reserved.
© 2006, The American Institute of Architects. All rights reserved.

Led by the commercial sector, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has remained in positive territory four months in a row. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the February ABI score was 51.0, following a mark of 50.9 in January. This score reflects a slight increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 63.4, up from mark of 61.2 the previous month and its highest reading since July 2007.

“This is more good news for the design and construction industry that continues to see improving business conditions,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA.  “The factors that are preventing a more accelerated recovery are persistent caution from clients to move ahead with new projects, and a continued difficulty in accessing financing for projects that developers have decided to pursue.”

Key February ABI highlights:

      • Regional averages: Midwest (56.0), South (51.3), Northeast (51.0), West (45.6)
      • Sector index breakdown: commercial / industrial (55.1), multi-family residential (53.3),
      • institutional (50.3), mixed practice (46.3)
      • Project inquiries index: 63.4

The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the index and inquiries are monthly numbers.

About the AIA Architecture Billings Index
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group, is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly “Work-on-the-Boards” survey that is sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms. Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to the prior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI.  These monthly results are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline. The regional and sector data are formulated using a three-month moving average. More information on the ABI and the analysis of its relationship to construction activity can be found in the White Paper Architecture Billings as a Leading Indicator of Construction: Analysis of the Relationship Between a Billings Index and Construction Spending on the AIA web site.

ABI Positive for Third Straight Month

On the heels of consecutive months of strengthening business conditions, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has now reached positive territory three months in a row. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The AIA reported the January ABI score was 50.9, following a mark of 51.0* in December. This score reflects a slight increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 61.2, down just a notch from a reading of 61.5 the previous month.

“Even though we had a similar upturn in design billings in late 2010 and early 2011, this recent showing is encouraging because it is being reflected across most regions of the country and across the major construction sectors,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Ph.D., Hon. AIA.  “But because we still continue to hear about struggling firms and some continued uncertainty in the market, we expect overall economic improvements in the design and construction sector to be modest in the coming months.”

Key January ABI highlights:

  • Regional averages: Midwest (53.7), South (51.6), Northeast (50.7), West (45.6)
  • Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (52.6), commercial / industrial (52.2), institutional (51.1), mixed practice (46.1)
  • Project inquiries index: 61.2

The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the index and inquiries are monthly numbers.

About the AIA Architecture Billings Index
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group, is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly “Work-on-the-Boards” survey that is sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms. Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to the prior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI.  These monthly results are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline. The regional and sector data are formulated using a three-month moving average. More information on the ABI and the analysis of its relationship to construction activity can be found in the White Paper Architecture Billings as a Leading Indicator of Construction: Analysis of the Relationship Between a Billings Index and Construction Spending on the AIA web site.

* Every January the AIA research department updates the seasonal factors used to calculate the ABI, resulting in a revision of recent ABI values.

ABI Ticks Up After Four Months Down

© 2006, The American Institute of Architects. All rights reserved.
© 2006, The American Institute of Architects. All rights reserved.

On the heels of a period of weakness in design activity, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) took a sudden upturn in August. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the August ABI score was 51.4, following a very weak score of 45.1 in July. This score reflects an increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 56.9, up sharply from a reading of 53.7 the previous month.

“Based on the poor economic conditions over the last several months, this turnaround in demand for design services is a surprise,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Many firms are still struggling, and continue to report that clients are having difficulty getting financing for viable projects, but it’s possible we’ve reached the bottom of the down cycle.”

Key August ABI highlights:

      • Regional averages: Midwest (49.0), South (47.4), West (47.4), Northeast (46.5)
      • Sector index breakdown: mixed practice (50.9), institutional (48.5), commercial / industrial (46.0) multi-family residential (44.8)
      • Project inquiries index: 56.9

The regional and sector breakdowns are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the index and inquiries are raw numbers.

Solving the Credit Crunch: A Member’s Perspective

As we survey the economic landscape in the summer of 2011, there is unfortunately nothing but bad news. As one business associate told me recently, “I can see the light at the end of the tunnel, but it keeps coming from further and further away.” The chance of a double-dip recession increases with every passing hour.

What’s even more depressing is that no action to either stimulate economic activity (though increased government spending) or encourage it (through tax cuts or credits) seems remotely possible from Congress or the Administration. As the struggle in Washington, D.C. over the debt ceiling and other issues continues to roil both sides of the political aisle, it’s clear that policy-makers are squandering the valuable time we need to fix the primary issue facing one of the biggest job-creating sectors of the economy – the design and construction industry.

That issue is the chronic credit crunch.

The design and construction industry currently accounts for $1 in $9 of U.S. Gross Domestic Product, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Each $1 million in new construction spending supports 28.5 full-time, year-round-equivalent jobs, according to a study by George Mason University economist Stephen J. Fuller. Yet, despite record low interest rates, a financing crunch still persists in our sector.

The American Institute of Architects asked members about this continuing problem for the first time in a survey of April business activity taken as part of the AIA’s regular Architectural Billings Index (ABI), a leading monthly economic indicator of construction activity that provides a nine to 12-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity.

Almost two-thirds of the firms responding to the survey – 63% to be exact – reported they had at least one stalled project on the books; the average value of these stalled projects was almost $50 million per firm. To make matters worse, the ABI report for May business activity shows a continued deterioration in business conditions. The AIA’s May ABI score announced June 22 was 47.2, a decrease from a reading of 47.6 the previous month. (Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings.) One factor cited is the chronic lack of financing.

There are solutions already introduced on Capitol Hill that will help solve this problem. One is the Capital Access for Main Street (CAMS) Act, introduced by Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-CO), which would temporarily allow small community banks with under $10 billion in assets to spread out or amortize a portion of their commercial real estate loans over a seven-year period.  These banks, which provide many of the loans to our small businesses, would then have more liquid capital available to make responsible loans.

But with both political parties at loggerheads, bills like Rep. Perlmutter’s face an uphill battle. So with time of the essence, the AIA is seizing the initiative by committing to making available to potential investors in coming months a database of stalled building projects nationwide that make economic sense but which lack the financing to be completed. This unprecedented commitment by the AIA was announced in Chicago at CGI America, the first conference of the Clinton Global Initiative solely dedicated to economic issues impacting the United States.

In order to build and analyze the database of stalled projects, the AIA will establish a new survey that will begin to identify and analyze stalled projects from around the country that could be moved forward on almost any front but for the lack of financing. The commitment by the AIA involves soliciting information about stalled projects around the country from its members and allied professionals.

The AIA will analyze and categorize the identified projects by various factors, including building type location (including those locations with a strong, skilled workforce), new construction versus retrofit, and impact on sustainability and livability goals. The AIA will then work to identify opportunities for collaboration and financing to help move projects forward.

With banks reluctant or unwilling to lend, we must take the initiative on our own. We hope to share this idea and others at the CGI America conference. Our country has always depended on independent thinking to solve its problems. We think the development of databases such as this one is one idea that will catch on.

Joe Smith is President of AIA California.

ABI Shows Nominal Increase

© 2006, The American Institute of Architects. All rights reserved.

During the first two months of 2011 the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) is not exhibiting the strength of business conditions that were seen in the final quarter of 2010. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The AIA reported the February ABI score was 50.6, up slightly from a reading of 50.0 the previous month. This score reflects a modest increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 56.4, compared to a mark of 56.5 in January.

“Overall demand for design services seems to be treading water over the last two months,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “We’ve been preaching patience and cautious optimism for a full recovery because there continues to be a wide range of business conditions for architecture firms that are also influenced by firm size, practice specialties and regional location. We still expect the road to recovery to move at a slow, but steady pace.”

Key February ABI highlights:

Regional averages: Midwest (55.3), South (50.1), West (49.1), Northeast (46.4)

Sector index breakdown: commercial / industrial (55.0), mixed practice (51.3), multi-family residential (49.7), institutional (48.9)

Project inquiries index: 56.4